The OECD’s annual comparison of international trends in education has some findings for the UK which are highly counter-intuitive for some commentators. The UK has made considerable progress in early childhood education and has an above average level of graduate output, most especially in the sciences. There is a high UK graduate earnings premium. The UK has also concentrated on producing better qualified teachers before reducing class sizes. The other OECD countries are generally catching up and in some respects surpassing the UK.
The figures for higher education are split into academic and vocational courses. In academic courses the UK in 2000 had a 37% graduating rate which rose to 39% by 2005. The OECD average rose from 28% to 36% over the same period. The UK ranking fell from 3rd highest to 9th. Australia, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Poland all ranked higher. The UK’s increase in the age cohort participation rate was 30% between 1995 and 2004 against an OECD average of 41%. Leading from the front is harder than tucking in behind the leader ready for a sprint to the finishing line. In 1998 the UK had 48% of the age cohort entering academic higher education against an OECD average of 40%. By 2005 the figures were 51% for the UK against 54% for the OECD. Nine OECD countries had age participation rates above 60%. Perhaps the heading should have been, ’Everyone talks about a knowledge based economy’. Brian Walden on the BBC website makes interesting comparisons between the political catch phrases of the 1960’s and those of today . Has anyone heard of the white heat of technological revolution?
UK has proportionately more vocational students than other OECD countries.
The OECD average graduation rate for vocationally oriented HE courses is 9%. The UK figure at 28% is at the high end. Only Belgium (30%), Japan (34%), Korea (48%) and New Zealand (48%) have a higher proportion. So all the plumbers are from Poland because…? Actually plumbers qualify through NVQ levels 2 and 3 or City & Guilds. HE qualifications begin at NVQ level 4 which includes the HND.
UK has proportionately more scientists than most OECD countries
In the UK, 1,935 people per 100,000 among workers aged 25 – 34 years old have graduate or higher science qualifications against an OECD average of 1,295 per 100,000. 18% of UK students study science against an OECD average of 11%. Only Ireland, with 23% science students, does better. The UK figures are inflated by the high proportion of overseas students who study science - 30.6% of the total. Allowing for this, British science output is barely above the OECD average. There is also a question whether demand and supply for particular subjects is matched. In particular, the UK produces many more biologists than are required by industry and teaching.
The private rate of return is 9.8% for academic graduates in all 11 of the countries for which full data is available. Since this is well above real interest rates, going into debt while studying still makes sense. In the UK, among 30-40 year olds, the pay premium is 77% above those who had the same pre-university qualifications but chose not to attend. Including vocational HE qualifications reduces the premium to a still substantial 61%. UK graduates also have a much greater chance of finding jobs than their contemporaries who could have gone to university but chose otherwise.
Gender pay trends
In the UK as well as Australia, Austria, Canada, Ireland, Korea, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey higher education is proportionately more beneficial to the pay of females. In Belgium and Germany the pay uplift is equal for men and women. In the other OECD members men benefit more than women . Female earnings as a percentage of male earnings in the 30-44 age range vary from 51% in Korea to 84% in Luxembourg. The UK figure is 56%.
In the whole OECD those with only lower secondary education are 5% more likely to be unemployed than those with, and are 7% more likely to be unemployed than those with higher education. In countries which have not recently expanded their higher education system, there has been an 80% rise in unemployment rates among the less educated. In those countries which have recently expanded their higher education systems there has been a much lower, 50%, rise in the relative risk of unemployment among those who have not completed upper secondary education. This suggests that the increase in higher education benefits the whole economy including those who have only secondary education.
Within the UK the gap is widening. Between 1991 and 2005, the employment rate for those with upper secondary education rose from 78% to 80% while that for graduates rose from 86% to 88%. Among those in the UK without at least upper secondary qualifications, employment rates actually fell from 61% in 1995 to 52% in 2004.
There has been no rise in unemployment or fall in pay associated with increased graduate level education. There has been some slowing in the growth of the pay advantage for graduates in those countries which have expanded most quickly. This does not imply that all HE graduates obtain work suited to their qualifications. There have been small rises in the relative risk of unemployment among graduates but this is no different between countries that have or have not increased their proportion of graduates.
In 2005 there were 2.7 million international HE students according to OECD and UNESCO statistics. The proportion of students from any country that studies overseas varies from 1% to 18%. The countries where international students form the highest proportion are Australia, France, Austria, New Zealand, Switzerland and the UK. The countries to which the highest proportions of international students go to study are the USA (22%), UK (12%), Germany (10%), France (9%), Australia (6%) and Japan (5%). Between 2000 and 2005 the market share of the UK fell by under 1 percentage point while the US share fell by 4 percentage points.
French, German, Japanese and Korean students are the largest contingents of international students from within the OECD, while Indian and Chinese students are the largest contingents from outside. 30% of international students in Finland, Germany, Hungary, Switzerland and the UK are enrolled in sciences, agriculture or engineering. In the UK 35.4% of taught higher degrees and 38.9% of advanced research programmes are completed by overseas students. In some subjects, such as economics, there are almost too few home postgraduate students to form the next generation of lecturers. This is because the home students do not apply rather than any shortage of places. Among the UK’s international students, 14.6% study sciences, 15.1% study engineering and 40.1% study social sciences, business and law. The law figures may reflect the number of countries in Asia and Africa with legal systems based on the British.
Ireland and Spain had the most equitable access to higher education while in Austria, France Germany and Portugal students from a working class background were about one half as likely as middle class student to be in higher education. In the UK, 27% of fathers of children of university age had a higher education qualification: but 54% of higher education students had fathers with a higher education. Countries which have class equality in university access also tend to have far lower differences between individual secondary schools’ achievements.
Student expectations of attending university are related to social background
In the OECD 57% of 15 year olds expect to attend university. The range is from 95% in South Korea to 21% in Germany. The UK figure is 32%, behind amongst others Greece and Turkey. In the UK 35% of females expect to attend university but only 27% of males. 2003 data from the OECD PISA programme shows a strong correlation between performance in reading and mathematics and expectations of university entrance. There are also strong correlations between social class and expectations. Those from lower socio-economic backgrounds have lower expectations while students from immigrant backgrounds have higher expectations than justified by their educational achievement and higher than their white social equivalents. In the UK the socio-economic top quartile of students has 2.4 times greater expectation of attending university than the bottom quartile. Some of us are more equal than others.
The UK higher education class size rose from 16.7 in 1996 to 18.2 in 2005. The comparable OECD class sizes were almost unchanged at 15.7 and 15.8. Individual tuition and personal attention are superfluous luxuries we can no longer afford. If you have problems, ring the Samaritans.
Between 1995 and 2004 per student spending fell in the UK by 7% in real terms. Average OECD spending rose 9% over the same period. The share of capital spending in the UK is 5% of the total against an OECD average of 10.7%. If the roof leaks, bring an umbrella.
The TES concentrated its report on the relatively good news about pre-primary spending and teacher salaries. Both the OECD and TES thought the decision to emphasise teaching quality over class sizes and thought that money was generally well spent. It did note that while countries which had recently and rapidly expanded their higher education sectors showed economic benefits for both graduates and non-graduates. The UK had not been expanding much recently.
The BBC quoted Diana Warwick, chief executive of Universities UK, who noted that the UK was attracting more than its share of overseas students but should not be complacent as other countries were catching and surpassing us.
The Guardian made the point that the figures used are largely from before the full effect of top up fees was felt and before the large increases in schools expenditure since 2000.
Reuters quoted OECD analyst Andreas Schleicher: ’In the year 2000, Britain had one of the highest graduation rates, whereas very little has happened (since) compared to other countries that have expanded their higher education system in terms of their output," he said at the report's launch.
"While it is still very strong it (the British higher education sector) is no longer at the world class level in terms of quantity.’
The Scotsman concentrated on the relatively high pay of Scottish teachers and that they have the longest class contact hours in the OECD. The public comments showed an interesting contrast of opinions about teachers, teaching and pupils.
The Telegraph led with the headlines: ‘OECD: UK trails Slovenia in class sizes’ and ‘UK slips in graduates league’. It also mentioned the favourable opinions on pre-school funding, the possible improvements following the raising of the school leaving age to 18 and the gap in class sizes between state and private schools. How many readers actually go beyond the headlines to absorb the relatively balanced article beneath? How many remember anything beyond the headlines even if they glance at the main story?
The Daily Mail had two resolutely downbeat headlines: ‘Low aspirations of youth sees Britain plummet in world education’ and ‘Classes in British primary schools
'among biggest in the world'’. The body of the article made the same positive points as the other papers but adds nothing. The newspaper seemed either unable or unwilling to consider the possibility that the relentlessly negative reporting of HE issues that characterises much media output might be a factor in these low aspirations.
The Times editorial concluded: ‘The broad, albeit impressionistic, conclusions of this report are that education is a good investment both socially and economically but the UK does not enjoy a pre-eminent position among international peers when it comes to educational standards’. It also had an implicit side swipe at teachers hours that while British teachers had longer in the classroom than almost anyone else, that amounted to five hours a day for 38 weeks a year. We all know that teachers have class homework marked by the tooth fairy.
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